Trend towards High-Definition video: Japan ahead of U.S. and Europe - Technology Trend at CEATEC JAPAN 2008 (4)
Trend towards High-Definition video: Japan ahead of U.S. and Europe
Technology Trend at CEATEC JAPAN 2008 (4)
"In Japan, about 80 percent of camcorders sold are of high-definition (HD). The sales ratio of HD camcorders is just about 20 percent yet in Europe and the U.S." This is what Panasonic and Sony mentioned at CEATEC JAPAN 2008, Japan's largest tradeshow in the electronics field, regarding how popular HD camcorders are for each region. We "shoot," "watch," "edit," and "save" HD video, in HD processing. HD camcorder, the first step in the process, is key for HD Processing to become popular.
The reason for such a large difference in the penetration of HD camcorders for Japan, U.S. and Europe, is deemed to have a lot to do with how the environment to "watch" HD video is permeated. Even if camcorders are HD-capable, it does not make sense to buy one unless you have HDTV to watch the HD video. Table 1 (right) compares the penetration rates of flat-screen TVs, terrestrial digital TV broadcasting, Blu-ray Disc, and HD camcorders in Japan, the U.S. and Europe. This table gives a clear difference in the penetration rate for HD camcorders, in terms of other HD-related products/services.
HDTV spreading slowly affects the overall HD trend
The diffusion rates of flat-screen TVs exceed 40 percent in both the U.S. and Japan, and that of Europe is low, about 30%. Meanwhile, the diffusion rate of terrestrial digital TV broadcasting is 84 percent in the United Kingdom, with 40 percent or more in all other EU nations as well. In the U.S., it is 13.7 percent, still way low. In Japan, the rate nearly matches that of flat-screen TVs.
The high penetration rate for the terrestrial digital TV broadcasting in Europe (DVB-T) is because it commenced early (Figure 1). DVB-T began in the U.K. in September 1998, and in Spain in May 2000. The rest also commenced DVB-T by 2005. Meanwhile, the diffusion rate of flat-screen TVs to watch HD video is low compared with Japan and the U.S. This is because the purpose of Europe's DVB-T was not HD video but multi-channel. Thus, the broadcasting at first was not HD but SD. It is in 2004 that Euro1080 started Europe's first HDTV broadcasting. In Europe, multi-channel broadcasting is advanced, but HD broadcasting that uses broad bandwidth is behind, which has lead to slow popularization of HD camcorders.
In the U.S., on the other hand, the terrestrial broadcasters perceived digitalization as mere increase in cost at first. The CATV businesses who transmit the terrestrial broadcast were reluctant, too, for digital broadcasting because it takes as 3 times as wide bandwidth of SD video to transmit HD, causing too much capital expenditure. Also, in the U.S., about 80 percent of all the viewers use CATV or satellite broadcasting. Even if analog broadcast is terminated, CATV or satellite subscribers are less likely to be involved in troubles directly. Therefore, the consumers' awareness on the termination of analog broadcasting was also low in the U.S. It is hard to imagine for those who hardly watch HD video to buy HD camcorders that are more expensive than ordinary SD ones.
HD camcorders spread globally after 2010
These situations will change for the next several years for two reasons. One reason is termination of analog TV broadcasting, and the other is spread of Blu-ray Disc. From 2009 to 2012, analog TV broadcasting will be terminated in each country. In the U.S., it will be February in 2009. Once people are in an environment where high-quality video is viewable on HDTV on a regular basis, they are well aware of HD video, making a basis of HD camcorders to be popular. In Europe, DVB-S2, the standard for satellite broadcasting in which HD video is highly compressed, was released in 2005, and broadcasting has moved toward HD around the satellite broadcasting. In 2007, a similar standard (DVB-T2) was released for terrestrial broadcasting, and broadcasting will be moving ahead towards HD in the future.
Moreover, spread of Blu-ray Disc backs the environment to watch HD video. In February 2008, the standard conflict between Blu-ray vs. HD DVD was finally over, and the HD disc media are about to spread. According to Strategy Analytics Inc., a research company in the U.S., the diffusion rates of Blu-ray Disc are 15, 10, and 7 percent, in Japan, the U.S., and Europe, respectively. In 2012, they will be 55 percent for Japan; 44 for the U.S., with 32 for Europe, growing at a breath.
This way, as environment for watching HD video becomes popular, equipment for shooting, HD camcorders, will spread. By 2010 at the latest, HD camcorders spread rapidly and globally. In fact, according to the estimate by Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association or JEITA, the demand for camcorders in 2010 will reach about 18 million worldwide. Some also estimate the ratio for which HD camcorders account among the number will reach about 80 percent in 2010.
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